Change Behavior or Wait for Disaster

"Business as usual" is simply the continuation of what we are doing today. It refers to the current rate of increment in burning of fossil fuel, converting forest to agricultural land, using pesticide etc. Let's, first have a snapshot of  some important component of environmental systems to realize, what "Business as usual" on climate related variables actually reflect to.

Trend Observation:  

Population is increasing. With this, demand for energy,  food, space (urban infrastructure, housing etc.) and natural resources will also increase. Not only the population but individual consumption has also increased, for example see: electricity, which will eventually top up the pressure in environmental systems.

Source: Grits File and World Population to 2300, UN

Use of fossil fuel is increasing This is identified as major source of carbon dioxide emission. Below figure shows the trend of fuel use in recent years.

More fertilizer needed to produce more food for increasing population. With increasing population, commercialization in agriculture has also gone up. Use of chemical fertilizer, pesticide etc. has become common and massive. As these harmful chemical enters the ecosystem and gets accumulated, it degrades land, force species to displacement, pollutes water bodies and harm human health. FAO (2015) reports the reduction in rapid increase rate of fertilizer in 90's as compared to the rate during 60's to 80's, however continue to increase in slower rate in coming future.  

Source: FAO,,World agriculture toward 2015/30

Land is degrading. GLASOD estimates that 1900 MHa of land has already degraded and more than half of which is no more suitable for agriculture (ISRIC 2015). The map is quite old. I will replace this map with updated one as soon as it will be available to me.    

From: World Soil Information.  

Ice is melting. Shea et al. (2015) has studied the melting of glacier in Everest region. It shows the by the end of this century ice cover will reduce by around 70 to 90 percent. This will not only have long term effect through climate change but result in various disastrous events like flash flood, seasonal flooding, drought etc., which will threat lives of around billion of people living in the region.

Source: Shea et al. (2015)

Bio-diversity is reducing. Sandon et al (2014) discusses about the gradual loss of bio-diversity in recent decades.  Jenkin M. et al (2003) in prospectus of science presents the index of living planet, were trend of three different population index was plotted from 1970 to 2000 and was observed to slowly decrease. Firbank et al. 2007 also observed the impact of agriculture in bio-diversity and suggested some way to reduce it. 

Source: Jenkin et al. (2003)

Tired of reading the stuff, please look below the cartoon, which is not only refreshing, but also awaking. It indicates where business at usual might take us through......

Source:https://goodolewoody.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/car-in-flood.gif?w=474

And if this is not, what we want....

…. there is no option left then to work together toward reducing green house gases (Figure Below) .. so that the scenario might change.

From: website of Cleantechcompass

Wondering how?... Keep following!! The next post will present some ways of initiating change not the climate but our behaviour.